1st Risk Summit (2009)
10 Dec 2009
09:00 -22:00
Times are shown in local time.
Open to: Specialists and business managers, including threat specialists, academics, policy-makers, practitioners and advisors
Cambridge Judge Business School
Trumpington St
Cambridge
CB2 1AG
United Kingdom
Managing the Risk of Catastrophic Failure in Complex Systems
A conference presented by the Centre for Risk Studies, together with the Cambridge Complexity Consortium and the Centre for Science and Policy.
Catastrophic failure in complex systems is difficult to predict but is managed across a wide range of applications. Understanding the threats of high-impact, low-probability events is the area of catastrophe science. It is notoriously difficult because precedents are few and historical observational data contains few signals of the threat of extreme volatility. Shocks to the system are often, after the event, described as unpredictable.
This workshop examined the phenomenon of catastrophe and challenged the assumptions of unpredictability. Wide ranges of potential causes of extreme disruption for society and the economy, as well as the approaches to quantifying and comparing different threats were explored.
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Programme
- Introductions from the Centre for Risk Studies
- Plenary Session 1: Science around Risk
- Plenary Session 2: Real-world Examples of Catastrophic Failures
- Facilitated Meeting Discussion
Introductions from the Centre for Risk Studies
Welcome and introductions
Professor Daniel Ralph, Cambridge Judge Business School
Introduction to the Cambridge Complexity Consortium
Michelle Tuveson, Lockheed Martin
Introduction to the Centre for Risk Studies
Andrew Coburn, RMS
Introduction to the Centre for Science and Policy
David Cleevely, University of Cambridge
Plenary Session 1: Science around Risk
Catastrophic Failures in Networked Systems
Jon Crowcroft, University of Cambridge
Robust Networks
Sanjeev Goyal, University of Cambridge
Catastrophe Insurance Risk
Hemant Shah, RMS
Plenary Session 2: Real-world Examples of Catastrophic Failures
Failure Mechanisms in Modern Telecommunication Systems
Nick Kingsbury, University of Cambridge
Catastrophic Failures in Biological Systems
Steve Oliver, University of Cambridge
Risk Provisioning and Government Policy
Jim Norton, UK POST
Risk Analysis of Complex Systems: From Space Shuttle Challenger Disaster to Detection of Illicit Nuclear Materials Entering Ports
Siddhartha Dalal, Rand Corporation
Visualisation and Presentation of Risk in Decision Making
David Spiegelhalter, University of Cambridge
Environmental Risks
Rowan Douglas, Willis
Facilitated Meeting Discussion
What Are the High Emerging Risks?
Introduction by Andrew Coburn, RMS
Facilitator: Trevor Maynard, Lloyd’s
Meeting Summary
Julian Hunt, University of Cambridge
Speakers
- Daniel Ralph, Cambridge Judge Business School
- Michelle Tuveson, Lockheed Martin
- Andrew Coburn, RMS
- David Cleevely, University of Cambridge
- Jon Crowcroft, University of Cambridge
- Sanjeev Goyal, University of Cambridge
- Hemant Shah, RMS
- Nick Kingsbury, University of Cambridge
- Steve Oliver, University of Cambridge
- Jim Norton, UK POST
- Siddhartha Dalal, Rand Corporation
- David Spiegelhalter, University of Cambridge
- Rowan Douglas, Willis
- Trevor Maynard, Lloyd’s
- Julian Hunt, University of Cambridge