Chris Hope

Emeritus Reader in Policy Modelling

Fellow of Clare Hall

BA (University of Oxford), MA, PhD (University of Cambridge)

My research focuses on numerical information in public policy; policy analysis of the greenhouse effect; and the integrated assessment modelling of climate change.

Chris Hope.

My details

ch11@cam.ac.uk

Chris Hope’s blog

@cwhope

Academic area

Economics and Policy

Professional experience

Dr Hope was the specialist advisor to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs Inquiry into aspects of the economics of climate change, and an advisor on the PAGE model to the Stern review on the Economics of Climate Change.

His research interests involve numerical information in public policy and the integrated assessment modelling of climate change, and he has published extensively in books and peer-reviewed journals. He has completed PAGE09, the latest version of the PAGE integrated assessment model, and is now using it to investigate and publish papers on climate change policies in developed and developing countries. The model has also been used by the US EPA to develop estimates of the social cost of carbon.

Previous appointments

Dr Hope previously lectured at the Department of Fuel and Energy, University of Leeds, from 1983-1986.

Publications

Journal articles

  • Johnson, L.T. and Hope, C. (2012) “The social cost of carbon in U.S. regulatory impact analyses: an introduction and critique.”Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 2(3): 205-221 (DOI: 10.1007/s13412-012-0087-7)
  • Yohe, G. and Hope, C. (2012) “Some thoughts on the value added from a new round of climate change damage estimates.”Climatic Change, 117(3): 451-465 (DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0563-9)
  • Ward, J., Hepburn, C., Anthoff, D., Baptist, S., Gradwell, P., Hope, C. and Krahé, M. (2012) “Self-interested low-carbon growth in Brazil, China, and India.”Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 4(3): 291-318 (DOI: 10.1177/0974910112460436)
  • Durant, A.J., Le Quere, C., Hope, C. et al. (2011) “Economic value of improved quantification in global sources and sinks of carbon dioxide.”Philosophical Proceedings of the Royal Society A. Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1943): 1967-1979 (DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0002)
  • Hof, A.F., Hope, C.W., Lowe, J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Meinshausen, M. and van Vuuren, D.P. (2011) “The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component.”Climatic Change, 113(3-4): 897-917 (DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0363-7)
  • Pycroft, J., Vergano, L., Hope, C.W., Paci, D. and Ciscar, J.C. (2011) “A tale of tails: uncertainty and the social cost of carbon dioxide.”Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 5(2011-22) (DOI: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2011-22)
  • van Vuuren, D.P., Lowe, J., Stehfest, E., Gohar, L., Hof, A.F., Hope, C., Warren, R., Meinshausen, M. and Plattner, G.K. (2011) “How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?”Climatic Change, 104(2): 255-285 (DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9764-2)
  • Watkiss, P. and Hope, C. (2011) “Using the social cost of carbon in regulatory deliberations.”Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews (WIREs): Climate Change, 2(6): 886-901 (DOI: 10.1002/wcc.140)
  • Méjean, A. and Hope, C. (2010) “Modelling the costs of energy crops: a case study of US corn and Brazilian sugar cane.”Energy Policy, 38(1): 547-561 (DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.10.006)
  • Warren, R., Mastrandrea, M.D., Hope, C. and Hof, A.F. (2010) “Variation in the climatic response to SRES emissions scenarios in integrated assessment models.”Climatic Change, 102(3-4): 671-685 (DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9769-x)
  • Ackerman, F., Stanton, E.A., Hope, C. and Alberth, S. (2009) “Did the Stern Review underestimate US and global climate damages?”Energy Policy, 37(7): 2717-2721 (DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.011)
  • Hope, C. (2009) “How deep should the deep cuts be? Optimal CO2 emissions over time under uncertainty.” Climate Policy, 9(1): 3-8
  • Parry, M., Arnell, N., Berry, P., Dodman, D., Fankhauser, S., Hope, C., Kovats, S., Nicholls, R., Satterthwaite, D., Tiffin, R., Wheeler, T., Lowe, J. and Hanson, C. (2009) “Adaptation to climate change: assessing the costs.”Environment, 51(6): 29-36 (DOI: 10.1080/00139150903337423)
  • Hope, C. (2008) “Discount rates, equity weights and the social cost of carbon.” Energy Economics, 30 (3): 1011-1019
  • Hope, C. (2008) “Optimal carbon emissions and the social cost of carbon over time under uncertainty.” Integrated Assessment, 8(1): 107-122
  • Méjean, A. and Hope, C. (2008) “Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: a case study of Canadian bitumen.”Energy Policy, 36(11): 4205-4216 (DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.023)
  • Dietz, S., Hope, C. and Patmore, N. (2007) “Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: reflections on the Stern Review.”Global Environmental Change, 17(3-4): 311-325 (DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.05.008)
  • Dietz, S., Hope, C., Stern, N. and Zenghelis, D. (2007) “Reflections on the Stern Review (1): a robust case for strong action to reduce the risks of climate change.” World Economics, 8(1): 121-168
  • Fowler, S.J. and Hope, C. (2007) “A critical review of sustainable business indices and their impact.”Journal of Business Ethics, 76(3): 243-252 (DOI: 10.1007/s10551-007-9590-2)
  • Hope, C. (2007) “The social cost of carbon: what does it actually depend on?” Climate Policy, 6(5): 566-572
  • Alberth, S. and Hope, C. (2006) “Climate modelling with endogenous technical change: stochastic learning and optimal greenhouse gas abatement in the PAGE2002 model.”Energy Policy, 35(3): 1795-1807 (DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.05.015)
  • Fowler, S. and Hope, C. (2006) “Incorporating sustainable business practices into company strategy.”Business Strategy and the Environment, 16(1): 26-38 (DOI: 10.1002/bse.462)
  • Hope, C. (2006) “The marginal impact of CO2 from PAGE2002: an integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC’s five reasons for concern.” Integrated Assessment, 6(1): 19-56
  • Hope, C.W. (2006) “The marginal impacts of CO2, CH4 and SF6 emissions.” Climate Policy, 6(5): 537-544
  • Wahba, M. and Hope, C. (2006) “The marginal impact of carbon dioxide under two scenarios of future emissions.”Energy Policy, 34(17): 3305-3316 (DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2005.06.022)
  • Hope, C. (2005) “The climate change benefits of reducing methane emissions.” Climatic Change, 68(1-2): 21-39
  • Morimoto, R., Ash, J. and Hope, C. (2005) “Corporate social responsibility audit: from theory to practice.” Journal of Business Ethics, 62(4): 315-325
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2005) “Making the case for developing a silent aircraft.” Transport Policy, 12(2): 165-17
  • Lin, G.T.R. and Hope, C. (2004) “Genuine savings measurement and its application to the United Kingdom and Taiwan.” The Developing Economies, 42(1): 3-41
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2004) “Applying a cost-benefit analysis model to the Three Gorges project in China.” Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 22(3): 205-220
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2004) “CBA model of a hydro project in Sri Lanka.” International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 21(1/2): 47-68
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2004) “Impact of electricity supply on economic growth in Sir Lanka.” Energy Economics, 26(1): 77-85
  • Chae, Y. and Hope, C. (2003) “Integrated assessment of CO2 and SO2 policies in North East Asia.” Climate Policy, 3S1: S57-S79
  • Hope, C. (2003) “When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership.” Journal of the Operational Research Society, 54(11): 1167-1176
  • Grubb, M.J., Hope, C. and Fouquet, R. (2002) “Climatic implications of the Kyoto Protocol: the contribution of international spillover.” Climatic Change, 54(1-2): 11-28
  • Hope, C. and Palmer, R. (2001) “Assessing water quality improvement schemes: the multi-attribute technique of the UK’s environment agency.” Integrated Assessment, 2(4): 219-224
  • Miller, D. and Hope, C. (2000) “Learning to lend for off-grid solar power: policy lessons from World Bank loans to India, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka.” Energy Policy, 28(2): 87-105
  • Hope, C. (1999) “Predicting the millennium: climate.” Cambridge Alumni Magazine, 28: 10-11
  • Plambeck, E.L., Hope, C. and Anderson, J. (1997) “The PAGE95 model: integrating the science and economics of global warming.” Energy Economics, 19: 77-101
  • West, J., Hope, C. and Lane, S. (1997) “Climate change and energy policy: the impacts and implications of aerosols.” Energy Policy, 25(11): 923-939
  • Hope, C. (1996) “Uncertainty in full fuel cycle costs.” Energy Conversion and Management, 37(6-8): 825-830
  • Hope, C. and Maul, P. (1996) “Valuing the impact of CO2 emissions.” Energy Policy, 24(3): 211-219
  • Plambeck, E.L. and Hope, C. (1996) “PAGE95: an updated valuation of the impacts of global warming.” Energy Policy, 24(9): 783-793
  • Hope, C. and Parker, J. (1995) “Environmental indices for France, Italy and the UK.” European Environment, 5: 13-19
  • Hope, C. (1994) “Nuclear power and global warming: a first cost-benefit calculation.” Energy and Environment, 5(3): 195-205
  • Peake, S. and Hope, C. (1994) “Sustainable mobility in context: three transport scenarios for the UK.” Transport Policy, 1(3): 195-207
  • Hope, C. (1993) “Editor’s introduction.” Energy Policy, 21(3): 202
  • Hope, C., Anderson, J. and Wenman, P. (1993) “Policy analysis of the greenhouse effect: an application of the PAGE model.” Energy Policy, 21(3): 327-338
  • Jakob, M. and Hope, C. (1993) “The role of external advisors in corporate environmental policy development in the UK, Germany and Scandinavia.” Greener Management International, 3: 16-22
  • Grubb, M. and Hope, C. (1992) “EC climate policy: where there’s a will.” Energy Policy, 20(11): 110-114
  • Hope, C., Parker, J. and Peake, S. (1992) “A pilot environmental index for the UK in the 1980s.” Energy Policy, 20(4): 335-343
  • Parker, J. and Hope, C. (1992) “The state of the environment: a survey of reports from around the world.” Environment, 34(1): 19-44
  • Grubb, M.J., Victor, D.G. and Hope, C. (1991) “Pragmatics in the greenhouse.” Nature, 354: 348-350
  • Hope, C. and Owens, S. (1991) “Common inheritance – collective responsibility? State, market and citizen in the White Paper on the environment.” Energy and Environment, 2(2): 120-129
  • Hope, C.W., Parker, J.A. and Peake, S. (1991) “A pilot environmental index for the UK – results for the last decade.” Statistical Journal of the UN Economic Commission for Europe, 8(1): 85-107
  • Hope, C. and Owens, S. (1990) “Two cheers for EC energy and environmental policy.” Energy Policy, 18(7): 596-598
  • Hope, C. and Parker, J. (1990) “Environmental information for all: the need for a monthly index.” Energy Policy, 18(4): 312-319
  • Jones, M., Hope, C. and Hughes, R. (1990) “A multi-attribute value model for the study of UK energy policy.”Journal of the Operational Research Society, 41(10): 919-929 (DOI: 10.2307/2583270)
  • Owens, S., Hope, C. and Collier, U. (1990) “The integration of European energy and environmental policies.” Petroleum Review, 44(519): 187-190
  • Hope, C. (1989) “Energy and environment: the challenge of integrating European policies.” Energy Policy, 17(2): 97-102
  • Hope, C. (1989) “Fattening up for the market? Higher electricity prices and the value of the CEGB.” Energy Policy, 17(6): 608-612
  • Hope, C. (1988) “What is the CEGB worth? The impact of future government action.” Energy Policy, 16(3): 211-220
  • Hope, C., Jones, M. and Owens, S. (1987) “New directions for UK energy policy?” Energy Policy, 15(1): 5-6
  • Kreczko, A., Evans, N. and Hope, C. (1987) “A decision analysis of the commercial demonstration fast reactor.” Energy Policy, 15(4): 303-314
  • Hope, C. (1986) “Should the UK be talking to OPEC? Strategies for a non-OPEC oil producer.” Energy Policy, 14(6): 489-499
  • Hope, C. (1986) “Thoughts following a fall in the price of crude oil.” Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft, 1: 63
  • Hope, C.W. and Owens, S. (1986) “Research policy and review 10: frameworks for studying energy and the environment.” Environment and Planning A, 18(7): 851-854
  • Hope, C. (1985) “Free-falling oil prices – who would benefit?” Energy Policy, 13(1): 3-4
  • Hope, C. and Gaskell, P. (1985) “The competitive price of oil: some results under uncertainty.” Energy Economics, 7(4): 289-296
  • Fischhoff, B., Watson, S.R. and Hope, C. (1984) “Defining risk.” Policy Sciences, 17(2): 123-139
  • Evans, N. and Hope, C. (1982) “Costs of nuclear accidents: implications for reactor choice.” Energy Policy, 10(6): 295-304
  • Hope, C. (1982) “Assessing renewable energy research and development.” Energy, 7(4): 319-333

Books, monographs, reports and case studies

Book chapters

  • Hope, C. (2013) “How high should climate change taxes be?” In: Fouquet, R. (ed.) Handbook on energy and climate change. Camberley: Edward Elgar, pp.404-414
  • Hope, C. (2010) “The social cost of CO2 and the optimal timing of emissions reductions under uncertainty.” In: Gulledge, J., Richardson, L. J., Adkins, L. and Seidel, S. (eds.) Assessing the benefits of avoided climate change: cost-benefit analysis and beyond: Proceedings of Workshop on Assessing the Benefits of Avoided Climate Change, 16-17 March 2009, Washington DC, USA. Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, pp.101-115
  • Gallo, F., Woods, A., Hope, C., Worthington, B. and Coutts, A. (2009) “Energy, climate change and the environment.” In: Uberoi, V., Coutts, A., McLean, I. and Halpern, D. (eds.) Options for a new Britain. London: Palgrave Macmillan, pp.199-218
  • Hope, C. (2009) “The costs and benefits of adaptation.” In: Parry, M., Arnell, N., Berry, P., Dodman, D., Fankhauser, S., Hope, C., Kovats, S., Nicholls, R., Satterthwaite, D., Tiffin, R. and Wheeler, T. (2009) Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change: a review of the UNFCCC and other recent estimates. London: International Institute for Environment and Development and Grantham Institute for Climate Change, pp.100-111
  • Hope, C. and Newbery, D. (2008) “Calculating the social cost of carbon.” In Grubb, M., Jamasb, T. and Pollitt, M.G. (eds.): Delivering a low carbon electricity system. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.31-63
  • Hope, C. (2007) “PAGE modeling system.” In: Yale Symposium on the Stern Review. New Haven, CT: Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, pp.40-60
  • Yohe, G.W., Lasco, R.D., Ahmad, Q.K., Arnell, N., Cohen, S.J., Hope, C., Janetos, A.C. and Perez, R.T. (2007) “Perspectives on climate change and sustainability.” In: Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Working Group II contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.811-843
  • Hope, C. (2005) “Integrated assessment models.” In: Helm, D. (ed.) Climate change policy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.77-98
  • Hope, C. et al (2001) “Overview of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability to climate change.” In McCarthy, J.J. et al (eds.): Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.75-103
  • Hope, C. (1996) “Environmental reporting.” In Warner, M. (ed.): International encyclopedia of business and management. London: Routledge, 1st edition, pp.1246-1252
  • Hope, C. (1995) “Uncertain values in environmental policy analysis.” In Willis, K.G. and Corkindale, J.T. (eds.): Environmental valuation: new perspectives.Wallingford: CAB International, pp.178-190
  • Hope, C. and Fankhauser, S. (1995) “Greenhouse policies and the costs of mitigation.” In Parry, M. and Duncan, R. (eds.): Economic implications of climate change in Britain.London: Earthscan, pp.103-113
  • Hope, C. and Jones, M. (1989) “Decision analysis models as a framework for policy dialogue.” In: Jackson, M.C., Keys, P. and Cropper, S.A. (eds.) Operational research and the social sciences.New York: Plenum, pp.379-384

Conference papers

  • Hope, C. (1997) “Climatic impacts on developing countries.” In Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (eds.) Climate change and integrated assessment models [IAMS] – bridging the gap: Proceedings of the IPCC Asia-Pacific Workshop on “Integrated Assessment Models”, 10-12 March 1997, United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan. Ibaraki: IPCC, pp.347-357
  • Nitsche, C. and Hope, C. (1996) “The banking sector and environmental issues: some empirical evidence from Britain and Germany.” In: International Research Conference of the Greening of Industry Network (5th), 24-27 November 1996, Heidelberg, Germany.
  • Jones, M. and Hope, C. (1989) “Decision analysis models as a framework for policy dialogue.” In Jackson, M.C., Keys, P. and Cropper, S.A. (eds.) Proceedings of an IFORS Specialized Conference on Operational Research and the Social Sciences, 10-13 April 1989, Queen’s College, Cambridge, England. New York: Plenum Press, pp.379-384

Working papers

  • Hope, C., Gilding, P. and Alvarez, J. (2015) “Quantifying the implicit climate subsidy received by leading fossil fuel companies.” Cambridge Judge Business School Working Papers, No.2/2015. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Méjean, A. and Hope, C. (2010) “The effect of CO2 pricing on conventional and non-conventional oil supply and demand.” Electricity Policy Research Group Working Papers, No.EPRG1029. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Méjean, A. and Hope, C. (2009) “Modelling the costs of energy crops: a case study of U.S. corn and Brazilian sugar cane.” Electricity Policy Research Group Working Papers, No.EPRG0924. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Hope, C. (2008) “Valuing the climate change impacts of tropical deforestation.” Cambridge Judge Business School Working Papers, No.12/2008. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Hope, C. and Castilla-Rubio, J.C. (2008) “A first cost benefit analysis of action to reduce deforestation.” Cambridge Judge Business School Working Papers, No.13/2008. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Méjean, A. and Hope, C. (2008) “Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: a case study of Canadian bitumen.” Electricity Policy Research Group Working Papers, No.EPRG0804. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Alberth, S., Hope, C. and Morimoto, R. (2007) “Developing an integrated assessment model for the CMI low energy building design tool: final report.” Cambridge Judge Business School Working Papers, No.09/2007. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Hope, C. and Newbery, D. (2007) “Calculating the social cost of carbon.” Electricity Policy Research Group Working Papers, No.EPRG 07/20. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Morimoto, R., Hope, C. and Alberth, S. (2007) “Probabilistic CBA assessment of the CMI SMART Sensor System Project.” Cambridge Judge Business School Working Papers, No.08/2007. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Alberth, S. and Hope, C. (2006) “Developing the PAGE2002 model with endogenous technical change.” Electricity Policy Research Group Working Papers, No.EPRG 06/13. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.

  • Alberth, S. and Hope, C. (2006) “Policy implications of stochastic learning using a modified PAGE2002 model.” Electricity Policy Research Group Working Papers, No.EPRG 06/14. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Hope, C. (2005) “Exchange rates and the social cost of carbon.” Judge Institute of Management Working Papers, No.05/2005
  • Hope, C. (2004) “The cost of conviction in British politics: what happens to Labour’s majority if the party moves back to the left.” Judge Institute of Management Working Papers, No.15/2004
  • Morimoto, R., Ash, J. and Hope, C. (2004) “Corporate social responsibility audit: from theory to practice.” Judge Institute of Management Working Papers, No.14/2004
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2004) “Decision making analysis to assess the silent aircraft project.” Judge Institute of Management Working Papers, No.13/2004
  • Hope, C. (2003) “The marginal impacts of CO2, CH4 and SF6 emissions.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.2003/10
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2003) “Applying a CBA model to the Three Gorges Project in China.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.2003/1
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2001) “Extended CBA model of hydro projects in Sri Lanka, An.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.2001/15
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2001) “The impact of electricity supply on economic growth in Sri Lanka.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.2001/24
  • Hope, C. (1999) “Stabilisation and delayed cutbacks: incorporating sulphates into the calculation of impacts of two almost identical climate change scenarios.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1999/7
  • Jamasb, T. and Hope, C. (1999) “Welfare economic implications of energy-environmental costs and policies: a model of the Norwegian electric power sector.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1999/20
  • Pataki, G., Boda, Z., Radacsi, L. and Hope, C. (1998) “Environmental strategy and performance among Hungarian industrial firms: preliminary research and empirical analysis.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1998/34
  • Nitsche, C. and Hope, C. (1996) “The banking sector and environmental issues: some empirical evidence from Britain and Germany.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1996/7
  • Nitsche, C. and Hope, C. (1994) “Banks and environmental issues – a SWOT analysis.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1994/3
  • Nitsche, C. and Hope, C. (1994) “Banks as ‘policemen’ – money laundering and the proposed European environmental liability legislation.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1994/2
  • Peake, S. and Hope, C. (1994) “Measuring transport as mass movement: results for the UK, 1952-1992.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1994/9
  • Hope, C. (1993) “A fast and simple model of global warming from greenhouse gas emissions.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1993/2
  • Peake, S. and Hope, C. (1993) “Developing a transport efficiency programme: lessons from energy policy.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1993/20
  • Hope, C. (1992) “A model for policy-analysis of the greenhouse effect.” Management Studies Group at the Department of Engineering, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1992/11
  • Kirkman, P. and Hope, C. (1992) “Environmental disclosure in the UK company annual reports.” Management Studies Group at the Department of Engineering, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1992/16
  • Peake, S. and Hope, C. (1991) “Transport policy analysis: an energy analogy.” Management Studies Group at the Department of Engineering, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1991/14
  • Hope, C. and Parker, J. (1990) “Environmental information for all: the next for a monthly index.” Management Studies Group at the Department of Engineering, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1990/5
  • Hope, C., Hughes, R.M. and Jones, M. (1988) “Examining energy options using a simple computer model.” Management Studies Group at the Department of Engineering, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1988/14
  • Hope, C. (1988) “Fattening up for the market? Higher electricity prices and the value of the CEGB.” Management Studies Group at the Department of Engineering, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1988/11
  • Jones, M., Hope, C. and Hughes, R.M. (1988) “A multi-attribute value model for the study of UK energy policy.” Management Studies Group at the Department of Engineering, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1988/13
  • Hope, C. (1987) “What is the CEGB worth? The impact of future government action.” Management Studies Group at the Department of Engineering, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1987/4
  • Nitsche, C. and Hope, C. (1994) “Banks as ‘policemen’ – money laundering and the proposed European environmental liability legislation.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1994/2
  • Nitsche, C. and Hope, C. (1994) “Banks and environmental issues – a SWOT analysis.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1994/3
  • Peake, S. and Hope, C. (1994) “Measuring transport as mass movement: results for the UK, 1952-1992.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1994/9
  • Plambeck, E.L., Hope, C. and Anderson, J. (1995) “Updating PAGE: policy analysis for the greenhouse effect.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1995/14
  • Plambeck, E.L. and Hope, C. (1995) “Validation and initial results for the updated PAGE model: policy analysis for the greenhouse effect.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1995/15
  • Nitsche, C. and Hope, C. (1996) “The banking sector and environmental issues: some empirical evidence from Britain and Germany.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1996/7
  • Pataki, G., Boda, Z., Radacsi, L. and Hope, C. (1998) “Environmental strategy and performance among Hungarian industrial firms: preliminary research and empirical analysis.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1998/34
  • Hope, C. (1999) “Stabilisation and delayed cutbacks: incorporating sulphates into the calculation of impacts of two almost identical climate change scenarios.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1999/7
  • Jamasb, T. and Hope, C. (1999) “Welfare economic implications of energy-environmental costs and policies: a model of the Norwegian electric power sector.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.1999/20
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2001) “Extended CBA model of hydro projects in Sri Lanka, An.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.2001/15
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2001) “The impact of electricity supply on economic growth in Sri Lanka.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.2001/24
  • Hope, C. (2002) “When should you sack the manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.2002/4
  • Lin, G.T.R. and Hope, C. (2002) “Pilot indices of genuine savings for the UK and Taiwan, from 1970 to 1998.” Judge Institute of Management Working Papers, No.14/2002
  • Hope, C. (2002) “How close to the trapdoor? Measuring the vulnerability of managers in the English Premiership.” Judge Institute of Management Working Papers, No.16/2002
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2002) “An empirical application of probabilistic CBA: three case studies on dams in Malaysia, Nepal and Turkey.” Judge Institute of Management Working Papers, No.19/2002
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2003) “Applying a CBA model to the Three Gorges Project in China.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.2003/1
  • Hope, C. (2003) “The marginal impacts of CO2, CH4 and SF6 emissions.” Judge Institute of Management, Cambridge University, Research Paper No.2003/10
  • Morimoto, R. and Hope, C. (2004) “Decision making analysis to assess the silent aircraft project.” Judge Institute of Management Working Papers, No.13/2004
  • Morimoto, R., Ash, J. and Hope, C. (2004) “Corporate social responsibility audit: from theory to practice.” Judge Institute of Management Working Papers, No.14/2004
  • Hope, C. (2004) “The cost of conviction in British politics: what happens to Labour’s majority if the party moves back to the left.” Judge Institute of Management Working Papers, No.15/2004
  • Hope, C. (2005) “Exchange rates and the social cost of carbon.” Judge Institute of Management Working Papers, No.05/2005
  • Alberth, S. and Hope, C. (2006) “Developing the PAGE2002 model with endogenous technical change.” Electricity Policy Research Group Working Papers, No.EPRG 06/13. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Alberth, S. and Hope, C. (2006) “Policy implications of stochastic learning using a modified PAGE2002 model.” Electricity Policy Research Group Working Papers, No.EPRG 06/14. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Hope, C. and Newbery, D. (2007) “Calculating the social cost of carbon.” Electricity Policy Research Group Working Papers, No.EPRG 07/20. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Morimoto, R., Hope, C. and Alberth, S. (2007) “Probabilistic CBA assessment of the CMI SMART Sensor System Project.”Cambridge Judge Business School Working Papers, No.08/2007. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Alberth, S., Hope, C. and Morimoto, R. (2007) “Developing an integrated assessment model for the CMI low energy building design tool: final report.”Cambridge Judge Business School Working Papers, No.09/2007. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Méjean, A. and Hope, C. (2008) “Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: a case study of Canadian bitumen.” Electricity Policy Research Group Working Papers, No.EPRG0804. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Hope, C. (2008) “Valuing the climate change impacts of tropical deforestation.”Cambridge Judge Business School Working Papers, No.12/2008. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Hope, C. and Castilla-Rubio, J.C. (2008) “A first cost benefit analysis of action to reduce deforestation.”Cambridge Judge Business School Working Papers, No.13/2008. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Méjean, A. and Hope, C. (2009) “Modelling the costs of energy crops: a case study of U.S. corn and Brazilian sugar cane.” Electricity Policy Research Group Working Papers, No.EPRG0924. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Méjean, A. and Hope, C. (2010) “The effect of CO2 pricing on conventional and non-conventional oil supply and demand.” Electricity Policy Research Group Working Papers, No.EPRG1029. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
  • Hope, C., Gilding, P. and Alvarez, J. (2015) “Quantifying the implicit climate subsidy received by leading fossil fuel companies.”Cambridge Judge Business School Working Papers, No.2/2015. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.

Awards and honours

  • A lead author and review editor for the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was awarded a half share of the Nobel Peace Prize, 2007
  • Faculty Lifetime Achievement Award from the European Academy of Business in Society and the Aspen Institute, 2007

News and insights

More articles from Chris
Photo of man with flu.

Insight

Flu and coronavirus

The COVID-19 death rate is higher in European countries with a low flu intensity since 2018, says a working paper by Chris Hope of Cambridge Judge Business School. The death rate from COVID-19 (coronavirus) in Europe appears to be linked to low-intensity flu seasons in the past two years as the same people are vulnerable, says a working paper by Dr Chris Hope, Emeritus Reader in Policy Modelling at Cambridge Judge Business School. Although the working paper is "very much a first attempt to investigate any link between the COVID-19 death rate and flu intensity," the results do find a "significant negative correlation" between lower flu intensity and higher death rates from coronavirus – showing that more COVID-19 deaths have occurred where there have been fewer flu deaths the past two seasons. "The paper does not seek to make judgments about whether individuals were fortunate or unfortunate with regard to flu or coronavirus, or to evaluate governments' response to either illness," says author Chris Hope. "It simply reports my initial statistical findings as a policy modeller regarding the apparent statistical relationship between flu-season severity and COVID-19 deaths. The correlation with flu intensity can't explain everything, or even most of the…

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2020 brainfood hope voluntary exposure 1998x642 1

 

Voluntary exposure

An alternative idea to social distancing from policy modeller Dr Chris Hope. A new working paper by Dr Chris Hope, Emeritus Reader in Policy Modelling at Cambridge Judge Business School, suggests an alternative that could be offered to social distancing measures under the current coronavirus lockdown: "voluntary exposure" in which healthy people can choose to be infected and confined to their homes until no longer infectious. Currently, most people do not know if they are infected until they show symptoms, and they can, therefore, pass the infection on to other people in shops or the street while unknowingly infected. Under a "voluntary exposure" approach, people who choose to be immediately infected with COVID-19 (coronavirus) and then stay in their homes until no longer infectious "would then be able to resume something closer to normal life, once sufficient numbers were immune and the government allowed it," Chris writes in a blog post summarising the working paper. People at high risk or with pre-existing conditions would not be offered such voluntary exposure, or presumably not take it up if offered. He emphasises that the working paper posted on the Cambridge Judge Business School website is a "first analysis" of this new idea,…

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2018 News: Quiet please, advantage under dog.

 

Quiet please: advantage underdog

The current tennis scoring system – point-game-set-match rather The scoring system used in tennis – point-game-set-match rather than total points as in basketball – significantly improves the chances of an underdog winning a match at the upcoming Wimbledon championships, according to a novel scoring model developed by a University of Cambridge academic known globally for his climate change model. "Tennis has a weird scoring system," says Dr Chris Hope, Reader in Policy Modelling at Cambridge Judge Business School, in a blog post announcing his findings. "This leads to lots of excitement, as mini-dramas unfold near the end of many games and sets. But it can also lead to unfair results." Hope, whose PAGE (Policy Analysis for the Greenhouse Effect) model on greenhouse gas emissions has been used extensively by the US Environmental Protection Agency and other official bodies, turned his modelling expertise to tennis in advance of this year's Wimbledon, which begins on Monday 2 July 2018. Hope previously produced a model on top-flight English soccer for a research paper entitled "When should you sack a football manager: Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership". Hope’s PAGE model estimates the social cost of carbon dioxide to "help…

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Media coverage

The Guardian | 6 September 2021

Climate impact of a transatlantic flight could cost global economy $3,000

A study co-authored by Dr Chris Hope, Emeritus Reader in Policy Modelling at Cambridge Judge Business School, is quoted in the article. The study suggests the economic cost of climate change could be 6 times higher than previously thought. “For every tonne of carbon dioxide emitted, the global economy would be $3,000 worse off by the end of the century,” the researchers estimated.

The Sun | 9 July 2020

UK hit harder by coronavirus after 2 mild flu seasons, study finds

An initial investigation by Dr Chris Hope, Emeritus Reader in Policy Modelling at Cambridge Judge Business School, shows there could be a link between the COVID-19 death rate and flu intensity. “The paper does not seek to make judgments about whether individuals were fortunate or unfortunate with regard to flu or coronavirus, or to evaluate governments’ response to either illness,” Dr Hope says. “It simply reports my initial statistical findings as a policy modeller regarding the apparent statistical relationship between flu-season severity and COVID-19 deaths.”

Daily Mail | 29 April 2020

Healthy Britons could be exposed to COVID-19 as an alternative to social distancing

Dr Chris Hope from Cambridge Judge Business School people could opt for ‘voluntary exposure’ to coronavirus and would then be able to “resume something closer to normal life, once sufficient numbers were immune and the government allowed it.” People at high risk or with pre-existing conditions would not be offered such voluntary exposure, or presumably not take it up if offered.

Mirror, 29 April 2020
Brits ‘should be allowed to volunteer to be infected with coronavirus’

Science, 20 September 2019
The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C

Scienmag, 23 April 2019
Arctic warming will accelerate climate change and impact global economy

BBC, 26 July 2018
Feeling the heat

BBC, 24 July 2018
Newsnight

The Quint, 9 July 2018
Is tennis’ scoring system helping underdogs?

BBC World Service, 30 June 2018
Newsroom

New Scientist, 28 June 2018
How the weird scoring system in tennis gives underdog a boost

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