Associate Professor in Economics and Policy
Deputy Director of the Cambridge Executive MBA Programme
Fellow and Co-Director of the King’s Entrepreneurship Lab at King’s College
BSc (University of Warwick), MPhil, PhD (University of Cambridge)
My research interests include climate change, economics of the Middle East, energy economics and applied macroeconomics.
My articles have been published in a number of edited volumes as well as in leading journals, and have been covered in major international news outlets. I’m among the top 1% of authors in IDEAS/RePEc based on last 10 years of publications.
I have worked extensively on issues related to climate change and sustainability with both the public and the private sector and I’m also the Co-Founder and Director of the King’s Entrepreneurship Lab at King’s College, and Co-Director of the University of Cambridge climaTRACES Lab.
Professional experience
Kamiar Mohaddes is an expert in the macroeconomics of climate change and sustainability at the University of Cambridge, where he is the Co-Director of the climaTRACES Lab, a new interdisciplinary research initiative at the University of Cambridge focusing on climate, nature, and sustainability. He is also the Deputy Director of the Cambridge Executive MBA programme and Fellow in Economics at King’s College, Cambridge, where he co-founded and directs the King’s Entrepreneurship Lab.
In addition to climate change and sustainability, Kamiar’s research covers energy economics, economics of the Middle East, and applied macroeconomics more broadly. He is among the top 1% authors globally in IDEAS/RePEc (based on last 10 years of publications). His articles have been published in a number of edited volumes (Cambridge University Press, Oxford University Press, and Routledge) as well as in leading journals, including the Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of International Economics, Management Science, and the Review of Economics and Statistics. His research has also been covered in major international news outlets including the BBC, Bloomberg, The Economist, the Financial Times, the New York Times, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post. Kamiar’s work has been cited extensively by policymakers, including by more than 25 members of the United States Congress, the Congressional Budget Office, and the White House.
Kamiar has worked extensively on issues related to climate change and sustainability with both the public (including the United Nations, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, IDB) and the private sector (BCG, BNP Paribas, KPMG and many others). He is a regular visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund and has previously served as a Departmental Special Advisor at the Bank of Canada. He has worked closely with colleagues at these institutions to, for instance, develop tools to help examine and disentangle the size and speed of the transmission of different global, regional, and national macroeconomic shocks.
Kamiar obtained his PhD in economics from Cambridge as a Bill and Melinda Gates Scholar.
Previous appointments
Dr Kamiar Mohaddes was previously a Janeway Fellow in Economics at the Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
Publications
- Selected publications
- Journal articles
- Books, monographs, reports and case studies
- Book chapters
- Working papers
Selected publications
- Klusak, P., Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Kraemer, M. and Mohaddes, K. (2023) “Rising temperatures, falling ratings: the effect of climate change on sovereign creditworthiness.” Management Science, 69(12): 7468-7491 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4869)
- Kahn, M.E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R.N.C., Pesaran, M.H., Raissi, M. and Yang, J.-C. (2021) “Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: a cross-country analysis.” Energy Economics 104: 105624 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105624)
- Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (2019) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.001.0001)
- Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H.M. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Is there a debt-threshold effect on output growth?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(1): 135-150 (DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00593)
- Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño.” Journal of International Economics, 106: 37-54 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.010)
- Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H. (2016) “Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy: a counterfactual analysis.” Energy Economics, 59: 382-399 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.007)
Journal articles
- Debnath, R., Ebanks, D., Mohaddes, K., Roulet, T. and Alvarez, R.M. (2024) “Do fossil fuel firms reframe online climate and sustainability communication? A data-driven analysis.” npj Climate Action, 2(1): 47 (DOI: 10.1038/s44168-023-00086-x)
- Klusak, P., Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Kraemer, M. and Mohaddes, K. (2023) “Rising temperatures, falling ratings: the effect of climate change on sovereign creditworthiness.” Management Science, 69(12): 7468-7491 (DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4869)
- Mohaddes, K., Ng, R.N.C., Pesaran, M.H., Raissi, M. and Yang, J.-C. (2023) “Climate change and economic activity: evidence from U.S. states.” Oxford Open Economics, 2: odac010 (DOI: 10.1093/ooec/odac010)
- Debnath, R., Bardhan, R., Shah, D.U., Mohaddes, K., Ramage, M.H., Alvarez, R.M. and Sovacool, B.K. (2022) “Social media enables people-centric climate action in the hard-to-decarbonise building sector.” Scientific Reports, 12: 19017 (DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-23624-9)
- Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. and Sarangi, N. (2022) “Macroeconomic effects of global shocks in the GCC: evidence from Saudi Arabia.” Middle East Development Journal, 14(2): 219-239 (DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2022.2144022)
- Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H., Raissi, M. and Rebucci, A. (2021) “A counterfactual economic analysis of Covid-19 using a threshold augmented multi-country model.” Journal of International Money and Finance, 119: 102477 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102477)
- Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2021) “Covid-19 fiscal support and its effectiveness.” Economics Letters, 205: 109939 (DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109939)
- Debnath, R., Bardhan, R., Darby, S., Mohaddes, K., Sunikka-Blank, M., Cristina Villaça Coelho, A. and Isa, A. (2021) “Words against injustices: a deep narrative analysis of energy cultures in poverty of Abuja, Mumbai and Rio de Janeiro.” Energy Research and Social Science, 72: 101892 (DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101892)
- Flamini, A., Jahanshabi, B. and Mohaddes, K. (2021) “Illegal drugs and public corruption: crack based evidence from California.” European Journal of Political Economy, 69: 102005 (DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102005)
- Generoso, R., Couharde, C., Damette, O. and Mohaddes, K. (2021) “The growth effects of El Niño and La Niña: local weather conditions matter.” Annals of Economics and Statistics, 140: 83-126 (DOI: 10.15609/annaeconstat2009.140.0083)
- Kahn, M.E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R.N.C., Pesaran, M.H., Raissi, M. and Yang, J.-C. (2021) “Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: a cross-country analysis.” Energy Economics, 104: 105624 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105624)
- Couharde, C., Damette, O., Generoso, R. and Mohaddes, K. (2020) “The growth effects of El Niño and La Niña: local weather conditions matter.” Annals of Economics and Statistics, 140: 83-126
- Debnath, R., Darby, S., Bardhan, R., Mohaddes, K. and Sunikka-Blank, M. (2020) “Grounded reality meets machine learning: a deep-narrative analysis framework for energy policy research.” Energy Research and Social Science, 69: 2214-6296 (DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101704)
- Jibril, H., Chaudhuri, K. and Mohaddes, K. (2020) “Asymmetric oil prices and trade imbalances: does the source of the oil shock matter?” Energy Policy, 137: 111000 (DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111100)
- Mohaddes, K. and Williams, R.J. (2020) “The adaptive investment effect: evidence from Chinese provinces.” Economics Letters, 193: 109332 (DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109332)
- Jarrett, U., Mohaddes, K. and Mohtadi, H. (2019) “Oil price volatility, financial institutions, and economic growth.” Energy Policy, 126: 131-144 (DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.068)
- Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2019) “The US oil supply revolution and the global economy.” Empirical Economics, 57(5): 1515–1546 (DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1505-9)
- Alawadhi, A., Mohaddes, K., Burney, N.A. and Al-Khayat, A. (2018) “Kuwait’s macroeconomic performance in the global context.” Arab Journal of Administrative Sciences, 25(1): 93-119
- Burney, N.A., Mohaddes, K., Alawadhi, A. and Al-Musallam, M. (2018) “The dynamics and determinants of Kuwait’s long-run economic growth.” Economic Modelling, 71: 289-304 (DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.12.018)
- Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H.M. and Raissi, M. (2018) “Rising public debt to GDP can harm economic growth.” Economic Letter (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), 13(3): 1-4
- Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017) “China’s slowdown and global financial market volatility: is world growth losing out?” Emerging Markets Review, 31: 164-175 (DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2017.05.001)
- Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño.” Journal of International Economics, 106: 37-54 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2017.01.010)
- Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H.M. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Is there a debt-threshold effect on output growth?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(1): 135-150 (DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00593)
- Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, H.M. (2017) “Oil prices and the global economy: is it different this time around?” Energy Economics, 65: 315-325 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.011)
- Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2017) “Do sovereign wealth funds dampen the negative effects of commodity price volatility?” Journal of Commodity Markets, 8: 18-27 (DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2017.08.004)
- Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. and Weber, A. (2017) “Can Italy grow out of its NPL overhang? A panel threshold analysis.” Economics Letters, 159: 185-189 (DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.08.001)
- Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2016) “El Niño: good boy or bad?” Finance and Development, 53(1): 30-33
- Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H. (2016) “Country-specific oil supply shocks and the global economy: a counterfactual analysis.” Energy Economics, 59: 382-399 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.007)
- Cavalcanti, T.V.D.V., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2015) “Commodity price volatility and the sources of growth.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30(6): 857-873 (DOI: 10.1002/jae.2407)
- Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. and Raissi, M. (2014) “The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy.” Energy Economics, 44: 113-134 (DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.014)
- Esfahani, H.S., Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H. (2014) “An empirical growth model for major oil exporters.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29(1): 1-21 (DOI: 10.1002/jae.2294)
- Mohaddes, K. and Williams, O.H. (2014) “Inflation differentials in the GCC.” Middle East Development Journal, 5(2): 1350012-1-1350012-23 (DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500120)
- Esfahani, H.S., Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, H. (2013) “Oil exports and the Iranian economy.” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 53(3): 221-237 (DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2012.07.001)
- Mohaddes, K. (2013) “Econometric modelling of world oil supplies: terminal price and the time to depletion.” OPEC Energy Review, 37(2): 162-193 (DOI: 10.1111/opec.12012)
- Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2013) “Oil prices, external income, and growth: lessons from Jordan.” Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, 9(2): 99-131 (DOI: 10.1515/rmeef-2012-0011)
- Cavalcanti, T.V.D.V., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2011) “Does oil abundance harm growth?” Applied Economics Letters, 18(12): 1181-1184 (DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2010.528356)
- Cavalcanti, T.V.D.V., Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2011) “Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis.” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 51(4): 305-318 (DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2011.07.007)
Books, monographs, reports and case studies
- Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (2019) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.001.0001)
Book chapters
- Chudik, A., Pesaran, M.H. and Mohaddes, K. (2020) “Identifying global and national output and fiscal policy shocks using a GVAR.” In: Pesaran, M.H., Li, T. and Terrell, D. (eds.) Advances in econometrics: vol.41: essays in honor of Cheng Hsiao. Bingley: Emerald Publishing, pp.143-190
- Chudik, A., Pesaran, M.H. and Mohaddes, K. (2019) “Identifying global and national output and fiscal policy shocks using a GVAR.” In: Pesaran, M.H., Li, T. and Terrell, D. (eds.) Advances in econometrics: vol.41: essays in honor of Cheng Hsiao. Bingley: Emerald Publishing (forthcoming)
- El-Anshasy, A., Mohaddes, K. and Nugent, J.B. (2019) “Oil, volatility and institutions: cross-country evidence from major oil producers.” In: Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (eds.) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.52-72 (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0003)
- Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (2019) “Objectives, issues and findings.” In: Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (eds.) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.1-14 (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0001)
- Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (2019) “Reforming fiscal institutions in resource-rich Arab economies: policy proposals.” In: Mohaddes, K., Nugent, J.B. and Selim, H. (eds.) Institutions and macroeconomic policies in resource-rich Arab economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp.237-271 (DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198822226.003.0009)
- Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M., Elbadawi, I. and Selim, H. (2016) “The global impact of the systemic economies and MENA business cycles.” In: Elbadawi, I.A. and Selim, H. (eds.) Understanding and avoiding the oil curse in resource-rich Arab economies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp.16-43 (DOI: 10.1017/CBO9781316493854.003)
- Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, H.M. and Raissi, M. (2016) “Long-run effects in large heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally correlated errors.” In: Hill, R.C., Gonzalez-Rivera, G. and Lee, T.-H. (eds.) Advances in econometrics: vol.36: essays in honor of Aman Ullah. Bingley: Emerald Publishing, pp.85-135 (DOI: 10.1108/S0731-905320160000036013)
- Mohaddes, K. and Raissi, M. (2016) “Does inflation slow long-run growth in India?” In: Anand, R. and Cashin, P. (eds.) Taming Indian inflation. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, pp.115-129
- Mohaddes, K. and Pesaran, M.H. (2014) “One hundred years of oil income and the iranian economy: a curse or a blessing?” In: Alizadeh, P. and Hakimian, H. (eds.) Iran and the global economy: petro populism, Islam and economic sanctions. London: Routledge, pp.12-45
Working papers
- Kahn, M.E., Mohaddes, K., Ng, R.N.C., Pesaran, M.H., Raissi, M. and Yang, J.-C. (2019) “Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: a cross-country analysis.” Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No.1965. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
- Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Pesaran, M.H. and Raissi, M. (2019) “Debt, inflation and growth: robust estimation of long-run effects in dynamic panel data models.” Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Papers No.162. Dallas: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Flamini, A., Jahanshahi, B. and Mohaddes, K. (2018) “Illegal drugs and public corruption: crack based evidence from California.” Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No.1847. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
- Leong, W. and Mohaddes, K. (2011) “Institutions and the volatility curse.” Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No.1145. Cambridge: University of Cambridge.
- Mohaddes, K. (2003) “Researching the graduate labour market: are the younger graduates on a lower growth path for their earnings compared with their older counterparts?” Warwick Institute for Employment Research (IER) Working Papers. Warwick: University of Warwick.
News and insights
Governance, economics and policy
Climate change costs: even cool, rich nations at risk
Research by Kamiar Mohaddes found that cooler and richer countries are also hit by climate change, and that the cost of inaction on climate change far outweighs the cost of proactive measures. But barriers must be overcome.
Misc news
How reclaiming the narrative can empower
Black History Month panel discussion at Cambridge Judge Business School focuses on changing stereotypes, dealing with injustice, and building a better future.
Programme news
3 Gates scholars to study at Cambridge Judge this year
3 students will be joining Cambridge Judge Business School this autumn as Gates Cambridge Scholars. Aashka Tank, Sadhana Lolla and Uchechukwu Ogechulwu will start their MPhil studies at the Business School in October.
Media coverage
La Repubblica | 11 November 2024
I costi dell’immobilità climatica: fino al 15% del Pil globale entro il 2100 [The costs of climate immobility: up to 15% of global GDP by 2100]
The article references research by Kamiar Mohaddes, Associate Professor in Economics and Policy at Cambridge Judge Business School, into the effect of climate change on global GDP.
The i | 11 November 2024
‘Climate change cost our family farm £100k last year – we need action’
Dr Kamiar Mohaddes, Associate Professor in Economics and Policy at the University of Cambridge, has warned the world economy, including those of developed countries, will take a major hit unless urgent action is taken to mitigate against climate change.
University of Cambridge | October 2024
The price of ecological breakdown
Associate Professor Kamiar Mohaddes is one of the Cambridge researchers covered in an in-depth feature by the University on current research into the economic consequences of climate change and biodiversity loss, and ways to drive a more sustainable global economy.
Bloomberg | 24 September 2024
Bond investors alerted to hidden risks in ratings blind spot
The Sydney Morning Herald | 21 August 2023
Trillion-dollar cost of climate change will challenge federal budget
Financial Times | 17 August 2023
Lex in depth: how investors are underpricing climate risks
Reuters.com | 7 August 2023
Climate change puts sovereigns at downgrade risk, study finds
Investopedia | 22 August 2023
Here’s where climate change could cause credit downgrades
The Peninsula | 9 March 2023
Qatar, region must adopt renewable capital: Panel
The Economic Times of India, 7 August 2023
Climate change could reduce India’s credit rating, study finds
Responsible Investor, 7 August 2023
Researchers call for regulatory climate crackdown on sovereign credit rankings
BQ Prime, 7 August 2023
Climate change could reduce India’s credit rating, study finds
WION, 7 August 2023
Unchecked climate change to cost nations billion in debt
The Economic Times of India, 3 August 2023
Ratings firms struggle with climate risk in $133 trillion market
Bloomberg, 1 August 2023
Ratings firms struggle with climate risk in $133 trillion market
Nature | 17 November 2022
Social media enables people-centric climate action in the hard-to-decarbonise building sector
Phys.org, 16 March 2022
Cold and wet hits US states harder in some sectors
Financial Times, 19 January 2022
Responsible Business Education Awards: full shortlists
The Boston Globe, 21 December 2021
Compared with climate action, Build Back Better is downright cheap
The Conversation, 5 November 2021
Climate finance: It’ll be cheaper in the long run if poorer countries receive it as a matter of urgency
Business Weekly, 4 November 2021
US big-hitters back study on climate change economic impact
The Washington Post, 19 October 2021
The costs of climate change are getting lost on Capitol Hill
Bloomberg, 23 September 2021
A climate reckoning is coming for the world’s government debt
Reuters, 13 August 2021
Analysis: Debt in a warm climate: coronavirus and carbon set scene for default
Financial Times, 8 July 2021
The case for ‘truly-long-term’ debt ratings
The Telegraph, 6 July 2021
California’s heat dome poses unprecedented challenge for world’s fifth-biggest economy
Tejarat-e Farda, 12 June 2021
Kamiar Mohaddes talks about the state of the world economy after Covid-19
South China Morning Post, 11 May 2021
Why China has more to gain from fighting climate change than other countries
The New York Times, 7 April 2021
How debt and climate change pose ‘systemic risk’ to world economy
World Economic Forum, 6 April 2021
Study: Global warming could cut 63 countries’ credit ratings
VoxEu.org, 25 March 2021
Rising temperatures, melting ratings
Reuters, 18 March 2021
Global warming could cut over 60 countries’ credit ratings by 2030, study warns
Financial Times, 18 March 2021
AI can shine digital sunlight on to company greenwashing
The Guardian, 18 March 2021
UK, US and others face credit rating fall over CO2 emissions – study
Financial Times, 4 March 2021
The shifting fronts in the battle over EU trade policy
Le Figaro, 3 March 2021
United Kingdom: tax increases to finance “whatever the cost”
Donya-e Eqtesad, 6 December 2020
Benefits of buying a vaccine
The Times of India, 4 December 2020
‘What Covid-19 shows is that the global economy is not very resilient. Climate change could hit it severely’
Fox Business, 16 November 2020
Jeff Bezos spends almost $800M on Earth fund
Sohu, 22 October 2020
Slow post-pandemic recovery
World Economic Forum, 20 October 2020
The economic consequences of Covid-19: Why no country is immune
Scientific American, 11 August 2020
Our planet, our choice
Newsweek, 9 March 2020
Iran faces fourth crisis in oil crash amid U.S. sanctions, coronavirus and protests
Fox News, 19 February 2020
Extreme weather could cause a massive economic recession ‘like we’ve never seen before’
ABC News, 6 February 2020
Are economists globally understating or overstating the cost of climate change?
CNBC, 16 January 2020
Developing economies reliant on agriculture are more exposed to climate risks
Forbes, 4 December 2019
Innovating your way out of the resource curse
CNBC, 19 November 2019
Climate change could shave off three per cent of the world economy, study finds
World Economic Forum, 8 November 2019
A ‘green interest rate?’ Fed digs into climate change economics
Scientific American, 1 November 2019
Warming will cost rich and poor countries alike
World Economic Forum, 30 September 2019
Climate change will shrink these economies fastest
The Telegraph, 16 September 2019
What does the oil price surge mean for the UK economy?
The Nation, 4 September 2019
The green new deal is cheaper than climate change